Player story: author of Sobe na Mochila says he lost over R$ 100 thousand in gambling — what the math expected

The story

In the very first seconds of the video published by the channel Sobe na Mochila, the author makes the statement that shapes the entire account: «I lost over R$ 100,000 on gambling» (00:00). From that point on, he reconstructs the path that, as he tells it, led him to accumulate that loss over 6, 7 months.

The author says it all started with sports betting. He says he had an emergency fund of around R$ 14,000, R$ 15,000 — money that, according to him, was quite a lot — and that he lost it all on that type of betting. It was after that loss, he says, that he moved on to online casino.

When he got to slots, he says his first deposit was R$ 35 to R$ 40. According to him, he picked a random game and started spinning. The money ran out, and he says he deposited another R$ 30 to R$ 40 to keep playing. The bet per spin in that early phase was, according to him, R$ 0.60.

At that bet size, the author says he hit a win of around R$ 200 on one occasion. According to him, he thought that amount was enormous at the time.

According to the author, the bet sizes went up over time. At a certain point, he says the bet per spin was already at R$ 2 to R$ 3. It was in that range that what he describes as his biggest win came: R$ 14,000 to R$ 15,000. He states he had never had a win that large before.

Despite that win, the author acknowledges that the result did not make up for the accumulated loss. «I won that 14,000 playing, but I had already lost much more than that» (10:52). He does not specify how much he had already lost at that point, but he states the balance was still negative even after that win.

At a certain point, the author says he opened up to the people around him: he told his wife, his family, and a friend. The video does not detail how those people reacted to the revelation.

By the end of the period, according to the author, what remained were credit card debts and a loan he ended up taking out during that phase. He says he never added up the exact amount he lost: the figure of over R$ 100,000 is the estimate he presents in the video, without a detailed sum of each deposit or loss. The account ends with the author mentioning those financial obligations as something he still needs to resolve.

The numbers of the session

The table below gathers the values stated by the author throughout the video. The floor of the total loss is over R$ 100,000, an estimate that he himself says he never checked precisely. The bets per spin ranged from R$ 0.60 at the start to R$ 2 to R$ 3 during the phase of the largest win, and the total declared period was 6, 7 months.

What the maths expected

Every slot has an RTP (Return to Player), the fraction of each bet that the game returns, on average, over many rounds. The house edge is what remains: if the RTP is 96.48%, the house keeps 3.52%; if it is 96.81%, the house keeps 3.19%.

From the declared loss, it is possible to calculate the wagering volume whose expected loss equals that amount. The calculation is straightforward: divide the loss by the house edge. Since the author did not identify the game, the calculation uses the RTPs of two popular slots as a reference: Sweet Bonanza (RTP of 96.48%, house edge of 3.52%) and Fortune Tiger (RTP of 96.81%, house edge of 3.19%).

With a house edge of 3.52%, the expected loss of R$ 100,000 corresponds to a total wager of R$ 2.84 million. At R$ 0.60 per spin, that equals 4.73 million spins; at R$ 3 per spin, 947 thousand spins. With a house edge of 3.19%, the total wager rises to R$ 3.13 million — at R$ 0.60 per spin, 5.22 million spins; at R$ 3 per spin, 1.04 million spins.

The value calculated with the higher RTP serves as a ceiling: with a lower RTP, the same loss requires less wagering volume. Moreover, since the author declared over R$ 100,000, that figure is a floor — at least that amount was lost — and the corresponding number of spins could be even higher.

Distributed over 180 to 210 days (30 days per month, based on the 6, 7 months declared), those spins would come out to 4.5 thousand to 29 thousand spins per day, depending on the bet size and the RTP considered.

This calculation indicates an expected value, not an exact reconstruction of the actual session. The variance inherent to slots can cause the actual outcome to deviate significantly from this expectation.

What this story does not prove

The real bankroll not verified is the main limitation of this account. All values are self-declared: the author says he lost over R$ 100,000, but, as he himself admits, «I don't know the exact amount, because I never stopped to do the math» (24:24). The video's subtitles are auto-generated, which may introduce inaccuracies in the transcription.

The specific game is not identified by the author. He mentions having played slots but does not say which ones. The RTPs used in the calculations are generic references, not confirmed values for the games he actually played.

A single video is a single case. Accounts of large losses tend to be published precisely because they are extreme — those who lose little or gamble without dramatic consequences rarely record a testimonial. This survivorship bias prevents any generalization from an isolated case.

Finally, the calculated range of spins per day — from 4.5 thousand to 29 thousand — helps gauge what the declared loss implies in terms of playing time. The floor of 4.5 thousand spins per day already represents many hours daily in front of the screen. The ceiling of 29 thousand spins per day approaches nearly uninterrupted play. This suggests that, for much of the period, the bets may have been higher than the R$ 0.60 to R$ 3 range, or that the declared loss includes amounts lost outside of slots — such as the sports bets mentioned at the beginning of the video. These are possibilities, not assertions.

Risks and responsible gambling

Gambling can be addictive. Betting makes you lose money. Betting is not an investment or extra income. Content for adults aged 18 and over.

If gambling is taking away your control, seek help: in Brazil, the SUS CAPS (psychosocial care centres) treat gambling addiction, and Gamblers Anonymous groups meet in many cities. Our responsible gambling page has self-assessment and limit tools.

How this story was produced

This story was written by the casino24 team from the video published by Sobe na Mochila on YouTube on 14 July 2026. We archived the video page and the automatic YouTube captions on 9 October 2026; the quotes and the times in brackets come from those captions, which are machine-generated and may contain transcription errors. Quotes appear with their time in the video; where they are translated, the translation is ours. The amounts are those stated by the author: we saw no deposits, withdrawals or statements.

Because the game is not identified, we use the lowest and the highest confirmed RTP among the most played slots in our database, with the provider as the source. The expected loss was computed by code with the formula shown above. The text was drafted with the help of AI models and went through automatic checks of quotes, numbers and compliance and an independent editorial reading by another model.

We did not run a control demo session because the story does not identify the game.

Requests to correct or remove this story: write to contato@casino24.pro.