Lula's campaign reduces mentions of betting operators in runoff after first-round setback

Lula reduced references to sports betting in his campaign videos during the 2026 election runoff. According to a survey by Folha de S.Paulo based on 46 videos from Lula's YouTube channel published through October 15, the average number of mentions of «bets» dropped from 11 per video in the first round to four in the runoff.

The shift in tone comes after the president signed, on September 25 — nine days before the first round — Provisional Measure No. 1.394, which banned sports betting. According to Folha, Lula set the topic aside on two occasions during the runoff, including during the TV Band debate on Sunday evening (18). iGaming Business reported that the president also avoided discussing the impact of the Provisional Measure on football club finances and that, in September, «bet» was the eighth most spoken word by him, behind traditional PT topics such as healthcare and housing.

Reasons for the retreat

BNLData points out that Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) finished the first round with a 2 million-vote lead over Lula. A Quaest poll, cited by BNLData, indicated that 64% of respondents were aware of the end of the regulated betting market and only 8% of that group disapproved of the decision — a finding that suggests broad approval, but one that did not translate into an electoral advantage for the president.

The reaction among football fans worsened the scenario. According to BNLData, on October 11 Flamengo fans chanted insults against Lula after the 1–0 victory over Fluminense. The episode highlighted the dissatisfaction of part of the public with the impact of the ban on football club sponsorships.

Meeting with fan groups and fiscal impact

iGaming Business reported that Minister Guilherme Boulos, of the Secretariat-General of the Presidency, met on Monday (19) with 35 representatives of organized fan groups. According to the site, the meeting did not result in concrete measures.

Also according to iGaming Business, Planning Minister Bruno Moretti stated that more than R$ 5 billion will fail to enter public coffers next year as a result of the ban. It remains uncertain to what extent public approval of the ban translates into voting intention, as well as what alternatives the government is studying to offset the impact on clubs and the loss of revenue.